The Current State of the Online Dating Revolution
Online dating has become the dominant way people meet romantic partners in the modern era. According to a large-scale survey by Rosenfeld et al. (2019), approximately 40% of couples who began dating after 2017 met online, and this proportion continues to rise each year. In Japan as well, surveys by the Recruit Bridal Research Institute show a sharp increase in the proportion of people using matchmaking services, and dating apps have shed their social stigma to become a mainstream avenue for meeting partners.
However, alongside the proliferation of dating apps, questions about their effectiveness have also been raised. Researchers have pointed out that the abundance of choices may create a "paradox of choice" that actually lowers satisfaction, and that profile information alone cannot determine true compatibility. Finkel et al. (2012), in a comprehensive review published in Psychological Science in the Public Interest, rigorously examined the scientific evidence behind online dating, revealing both its potential and its limitations.
The Scientific Limitations of Matching Algorithms
Many dating apps claim to recommend "compatible partners" through proprietary algorithms, but Finkel et al. (2012) delivered a harsh verdict on the effectiveness of these algorithms. Their conclusion is clear: no algorithm currently exists that can accurately predict a couple's long-term compatibility in advance.
There are multiple reasons for this. First, many of the factors that determine relationship success emerge from "dyadic interactions" between two people and cannot be predicted from individual characteristics alone. A large-scale study by Joel et al. (2017) demonstrated that individual characteristics (personality, values, preferences, etc.) could predict only 0.5% of the variance in relationship satisfaction.
Second, the "similarity hypothesis" and "complementarity hypothesis" that algorithms rely on have repeatedly been shown to have weak correlations with actual relationship success. Personality similarity contributes to initial attraction but has limited predictive power for long-term relationship satisfaction. A speed-dating study by Tidwell et al. (2013) found that personality similarity measured beforehand showed almost no correlation with actual face-to-face attraction.
Third, people do not accurately know what they want. Research by Eastwick & Finkel (2008) found no significant correlation between the traits participants listed in advance as their "ideal partner" and the traits of people they actually found attractive during speed dating.
Reading Personality from Profiles
While acknowledging the limitations of algorithms, it is possible to infer a partner candidate's personality to some degree from profile information. Research by Back et al. (2010) demonstrated that Big Five personality traits can be inferred with reasonable accuracy from social media profiles.
Cues for extraversion: A large number of profile photos, inclusion of group photos, photos of outdoor or social activities, and a long, expressive self-introduction. Highly extraverted people tend to be proactive about self-disclosure and include abundant information in their profiles.
Cues for openness: Hobbies that include art, reading, travel, or philosophical topics; creative or atypical profile photos; humor or unique perspectives in the self-introduction. Research by Qiu et al. (2012) confirmed that highly open individuals tend to post about a wider variety of topics on social media.
Cues for conscientiousness: A carefully structured profile, few typos or grammatical errors, mentions of future goals or plans, and photos that convey a clean, put-together impression. Highly conscientious people bring their planning skills to self-presentation as well.
Cues for agreeableness: Warm expressions, statements showing consideration for others, absence of aggressive or sarcastic language, and mentions of volunteering or community service.
Cues for neuroticism: This is the hardest trait to detect, but excessively self-deprecating expressions, references to negative experiences, and numerous defensive statements like "people who do X need not apply" may indicate higher neuroticism. However, as Toma et al. (2008) noted, self-presentation bias operates strongly in online profiles, so inferences have their limits.
The Expectation-Reality Gap - Psychology of the First Meeting
A problem unique to online dating is the gap between expectations formed through message exchanges and the actual impression upon meeting in person. Research by Ramirez & Zhang (2007) showed that the longer the period of online communication, the greater the disappointment at the first face-to-face meeting. This is a phenomenon known as the "Hyperpersonal Effect."
In text-based communication, information about the other person is limited, so people fill in the gaps with their own ideals. According to Walther's (1996) Hyperpersonal Communication Theory, people tend to perceive others as more attractive than they actually are online, and this idealization collapses upon meeting in person. Related books can also be found at related books (Amazon).
From a Big Five perspective, people high in openness tend toward stronger idealization because of their rich imagination, yet they can also adapt more flexibly to discrepancies with reality. People high in neuroticism are more likely to feel intense disappointment and anxiety about the gap between expectations and reality, and research suggests they are prone to the confirmation bias of "I knew it wouldn't work out."
Sharabi & Caughlin (2017) recommend that to successfully transition from online to offline, people should avoid excessive expectations and meet in person relatively early (within 2-3 weeks of starting message exchanges). Extended message exchanges increase feelings of intimacy but simultaneously heighten the risk of idealization.
The Science of Effective Profile Creation
Here we organize research-based principles for effective profile creation from a Big Five perspective.
The importance of authenticity: Research by Toma & Hancock (2012) showed that people whose profiles are more authentic make more positive impressions in actual face-to-face meetings. Excessive self-enhancement may increase match numbers in the short term but invites disappointment upon meeting and hinders long-term relationship building. People high in conscientiousness naturally tend to create more authentic profiles.
Specificity and uniqueness: Generic descriptions like "I love traveling" or "I enjoy good food" fail to differentiate you from other candidates. Research by Fiore et al. (2008) showed that profiles containing specific anecdotes and unique perspectives attract more interest. People high in openness naturally use distinctive expressions, but those who are not can also enhance their appeal by consciously including specific episodes.
Positive framing: Negative conditions like "people who do X need not apply" give readers a defensive impression. Converting the same content into positive expressions like "I'd love to meet someone who..." signals high agreeableness and emotional stability.
Photo selection: Research by Olivola & Todorov (2010) showed that personality traits are (to some extent) inferred from facial photos. Photos with natural smiles convey high extraversion and agreeableness, while photos with tidy backgrounds convey high conscientiousness.
The Paradox of Choice and Decision Fatigue
One of the biggest problems with dating apps is the overabundance of choices. According to Schwartz's (2004) "Paradox of Choice" theory, when there are too many options, people procrastinate on decisions and, after choosing, are plagued by regret wondering "was there a better option?"
Research by D'Angelo & Toma (2017) confirmed that dating app users tend to become reluctant to deepen relationships with current candidates due to the expectation that "the next person might be better." This is called the "Commodification of Relationships" and fosters an attitude of treating partners like consumer goods.
From a Big Five perspective, people high in conscientiousness tend to commit persistently once they make a decision, making them less susceptible to the paradox of choice. On the other hand, people high in openness are easily drawn to new possibilities and have a strong exploratory drive wondering "there might be someone better," potentially taking longer to reach commitment.
Recommended countermeasures include consciously limiting the number of candidates under consideration at any one time (research suggests 5-9 is optimal), setting a "good enough" standard, and meeting in person at an early stage to make judgments.
Evidence-Based Strategies for Online Dating Success
Synthesizing the review by Finkel et al. (2012) and subsequent research, scientifically supported strategies for effectively utilizing online dating emerge.
1. Don't over-rely on algorithms: Treat matching scores as a reference only and prioritize compatibility in actual communication. What algorithms can predict is "initial attraction," not "long-term relationship success."
2. Meet early: Aim to transition to an actual face-to-face meeting within 2-3 weeks of message exchanges. Minimize online idealization and make judgments based on real interactions.
3. Prioritize value alignment over personality similarity: Research by Luo & Klohnen (2005) showed that alignment in values (life priorities, views on family, financial attitudes) predicts long-term relationship satisfaction more strongly than personality similarity.
4. Understand your own Big Five profile: By accurately grasping your own personality traits, you can form hypotheses about what kind of partner you're compatible with. The compatibility assessment on this site functions as a tool to promote this self-understanding.
5. Maintain a growth mindset: Research by Knee (1998) showed that people who hold a "Destiny Belief" - the belief that a perfect partner exists - are more likely to give up when facing relationship difficulties. In contrast, people who hold a "Growth Belief" - the belief that relationships can be improved through effort - can overcome difficulties and deepen their relationships. In online dating, the attitude of "finding someone to grow with" rather than "finding the perfect person" is crucial.